EPS_planmeeting

The HIRLAM-A planning meeting for
HIRLAM predictability research and development.

INM, Madrid, Spain
Saturday 11 March 2006
09.00 - 16.00

Meeting participants:

Dale Barker, NCAR, Jan Barkmeijer, KNMI, Jose Antonio Garcia Moyez, INM, Nils Gustafsson, SMHI, Bent Hansen Sass, DMI, Andras Horany, representing the ALADIN community, Trond Iversen, met.no, Martin Leutbecher, ECMWF, Jeanette Onvlee, KNMI, Bartolome Orfila, INM and Xiaohua Yang, DMI

Introductory talks

Nils Gustafsson: Requirements on a HIRLAM probabilistic forecasting system from the perspective of the HIRLAM A management group.

Jose Antonio Garcia Moyez: The INM multi-model multi-boundary short range ensemble prediction system

Andras Horany: Short range EPS activities within the ALADIN community.

Jan Barkmeijer: Calculation of singular vectors for HIRLAM and their use in short range EPS.

Dale Barker: Short range EPS based on the Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter

Trond Iversen: Short range ensemble weather prediction - state of the art and experiences with the met.no LAMEPS

Martin Leutbecher: ECMWF EPS - state of the art, problems and directions of development.

Discussion of plans; Summary

A plan for HIRLAM A predictability research - discussion chaired by Trond Iversen
   - Process oriented studies
   - Initial data perturbations
   - Lateral boundary perturbations,
   lower boundary perturbations
   - "Stochastic physics"?? - Perturbation of sensitive
   model parameters directly??
    An initial (level 0) HIRLAM EPS system -
   - Downscaling of ECMWF EPS, targeting
   - Multi-model, multi-boundary ensembles
   - Bayesian averaging
   - Validation

Development of a software framework for HIRLAM EPS -discussion chaired by Xiaohua Yang
   - Status of the basic model code needed for the research
   - Data organisation and communications
   - Scripts etc.
   - Validation and verification tools